In a world where change is the only constant, why do we still struggle to lead change well?
“The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence itself, but to act with yesterday’s logic”. – Peter Drucker
Drucker’s quote made me curious. I know that factors like resistance to change and failing to communicate a clear strategy are common obstacles to gaining people’s buy-in. However, short-term thinking and reactive decision-making also contribute to change initiatives’ failure.
We need to move away from using yesterday’s logic (at least doing so automatically) and adopt a critical, forward-thinking approach. For me, this approach consists of two crucial elements:
Vision and Foresight
Vision is not just about having a plan. Vision means designing what your future will look like, and then acting upon that design. When it comes to change, leaders and teams need a creative process to paint a picture of their ideal future. Prof. John Kotter describes it like this: “Without a sensible vision, a transformation effort can easily dissolve into a list of confusing and incompatible projects that can take the organisation in the wrong direction or nowhere at all.”
In a nutshell, leading change is not a ‘tick the boxes’ exercise, it’s a creative process.
Creating visions with your team
When you create your visions, stay away from going into planning or problem-solving mode. I recommend using visual aids like vision boards (Mural is great for virtual work) creating both visuals and a narrative to create your ideal future. Tap into your group’s emotions and encourage them to use storytelling to describe what the envisioned world looks like and what, for example, future clients are feeling and doing. Remember the vision Microsoft had of a personal computer in every home in the 1980s!
Visioning well with Foresight
Foresight is necessary to create a vision that aligns with your team, division, or organisation’s mission. Trends, behavioural insights, and inflection points are needed for foresight. This process is called ‘early symptoms of disruption’ by Mark W. Johnson. Pressure-test your vision after creating it. Consider whether everyone can clearly see the future. Can clients, staff, and stakeholders buy into the vision? Does data support it? You must decide if the goal is attainable and if you have the means to achieve it.
Developing a forward-thinking mindset
1. Curiosity and Continuous Learning
To think ahead, leaders must step out of their comfort zones and stay open to new ideas, technologies, and trends.
Practice Habitual Curiosity: Regularly explore what’s happening in industries outside your own. What trends are emerging, and how could they affect your business?
Encourage Learning in Your Team: Build a culture where learning is celebrated. Give people time and resources to experiment with new ideas.
Ask More Questions: Curiosity starts with asking “Why?” or “What if?” rather than rushing to solutions. This approach creates space for innovative thinking.
Example: a leader in retail might research AI trends in healthcare to understand how automation and data analytics could improve customer experience in their industry.
2. Leverage Data to Anticipate Trends
Forward-thinking leaders know that intuition is important but combining it with data strengthens their ability to anticipate the future.
Analyse Behavioural Insights: Stay close to what employees, customers, and competitors are doing. Are there patterns or behaviours signalling change?
Experiment and Monitor: Use small, low-risk experiments to test ideas and collect data on what works.
Use Predictive Tools: Technologies like AI and machine learning can provide insights into trends before they become obvious.
Example: a logistics leader might use predictive analytics to understand future supply chain disruptions and prepare contingencies in advance.
3. Create Space for Reflection and Big-Picture Thinking
A forward-thinking mindset requires leaders to step away from day-to-day operations and reflect on the broader horizon.
Schedule Thinking Time: Dedicate time weekly or monthly to think about long-term goals, trends, and challenges. Make this time non-negotiable.
Ask Future-Focused Questions: Consider questions like, “Where do we want to be in five years?” or “What might disrupt us, and how can we prepare?”
Connect Past, Present, and Future: Reflect on what lessons from the past can inform future decisions. Then, connect your vision to the present reality to drive meaningful action.
Example: The CEO of a software company might dedicate a monthly meeting to reviewing industry reports, connecting with forward-thinking peers, and brainstorming how emerging technologies could shape their product roadmaps.
4. Surround Yourself with Diverse Thinkers
Forward-thinking leaders avoid echo chambers and group think by actively seeking input from people with different perspectives, experiences, and expertise.
Build a Brain Trust: Surround yourself with team members, mentors, or advisors who challenge your assumptions and encourage critical thinking.
Practice Reverse Mentoring: Learn from younger team members who have their fingers on the pulse of generational trends and emerging technologies.
Invite Constructive Dissent: Create psychologically brave spaces so people feel encouraged to share dissenting opinions.
Example: A marketing leader might ask the team’s most junior social media coordinator to share what’s trending among Gen Z and explore how to weave those insights into campaigns.
5. Cultivate Resilience and Comfort with Ambiguity
A forward-thinking mindset thrives in uncertainty. Leaders must develop resilience to adapt and pivot as circumstances evolve.
Strengthen Emotional Resilience: Practice mindfulness and develop emotional intelligence to process emotions and maintain clarity during uncertainty.
Adopt a Growth Mindset: Reframe challenges as opportunities for growth. Instead of fearing failure, ask, “What can we learn from this?”
Experiment with Agility: Break larger change initiatives into smaller steps, review outcomes frequently, and pivot quickly when necessary.
Example: A leader facing economic uncertainty could pilot small-scale initiatives and adjust based on early results, rather than committing all resources to a rigid long-term plan.
Pulling it all together
By staying curious, leveraging data, creating reflection time, embracing diversity, and building resilience, leaders can adopt a forward-thinking mindset intentionally. This approach not only helps anticipate future challenges but also positions teams and organisations to lead change.
